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The Macro Bulletin
The Macro Bulletin offers snapshots of the Kansas City Fed's latest macroeconomic findings and perspectives on national economic conditions and issues related to monetary policy.
The Impact of an Aging Population on State Tax Revenues
By Alison Felix and Kate Watkins
People tend to earn less and spend less when they retire. As the baby boom generation retires, the aging of the U.S. population will likely reduce state governments’ revenue per capita from income taxes and sales taxes significantly.
The Weakened Influence of Low Interest Rates on Durable Goods Spending
By Willem Van Zandweghe and John Carter Braxton
Despite record-low interest rates, the pace of the current economic recovery has been only moderate. One reason is that the positive impact of lowered interest rates on consumer purchases of durable goods has diminished.
U.S. Exports and Foreign Economic Growth: Which Regions Matter Most?
By Jun Nie and Lisa Taylor
U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.
Has The Effect of Monetary Policy Announcements On Asset Prices Changed?
By Taeyoung Doh and Michael Connolly
The Federal Reserve has increased communication about the future path of the federal funds target rate over time. The use of forward guidance as a policy tool has raised questions about changes in how it influences the economy.
The Shadow Labor Supply and Its Implications for the Unemployment Rate
By Troy Davig and José Mustre-del-Río
The number of people wanting work, but not looking for a job, has swelled in recent years. However, their flow rate back into unemployment has been declining, so they will likely only have a modest impact on the unemployment rate.
Assessing Labor Market Conditions: The level of activity and the speed of improvement
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jonathan L. Willis
To help assess labor market conditions, two measures are proposed that show that the pace of improvement has recently increased, but two more years of similar improvement are needed to return conditions to historical averages.