The Macro Bulletin
The Macro Bulletin offers snapshots of the Kansas City Fed's latest macroeconomic findings and perspectives on national economic conditions and issues related to monetary policy.
What Could Lower Prices Mean for U.S. Oil Production?
By Nida Çakir Melek
In the Macro Bulletin, Nida Çakir Melek estimates the effects of the recent oil price decline on 2015 oil production.
- Are Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Stable?
Should Monetary Policy Monitor Risk Premiums in Financial Markets?
By Taeyoung Doh, Guangye Cao, and Daniel Molling
In The Macro Bulletin, Taeyoung Doh, Guangye Cao, and Daniel Molling examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums.
Following the Leaders: Wage Growth of Job Switchers
By José Mustre-del-Río
In The Macro Bulletin, José Mustre-del-Río analyzes labor market conditions to find increasing competitive pressures have led to strong wage growth for job switchers.
- Accounting for Changes in the U.S. Budget Deficit
Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?
By Didem Tüzemen and Thealexa Becker
In The Macro Bulletin, Didem Tüzemen and Thealexa Becker study the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Act and find the reform may have supported self-employment in the state.
The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Employment
By Andrew Foerster
In The Macro Bulletin, Andrew Foerster examines three periods of heightened stock market volatility during the economic recovery to find uncertainty may have slowed employment growth.
Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI)
By Jonathan L. Willis and Craig S. Hakkio
In The Macro Bulletin, Craig S. Hakkio and Jonathan L. Willis update the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators and assess labor market improvements and momentum.
China's Slowing Housing Market and GDP Growth
By Jun Nie and Guangye Cao
In The Macro Bulletin, Jun Nie and Guangye Cao examine the slowdown in China's real estate sector and suggest additional policy stimulus may be needed to meet the country's 2014 target for GDP growth.
The Wage Cycle and Shadow Labor Supply
By Troy Davig and José Mustre-del-Río
Troy Davig and José Mustre-del-Río evaluate current wage growth and find wages are not only rising at a pace consistent with the last expansion, but likely to rise further as the labor market improves.
Evaluating Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
By Craig S. Hakkio and George A. Kahn
Craig S. Hakkio and George A. Kahn compare a "shadow" federal funds rate to prescriptions from an estimated policy rule and find policy was not sufficiently accommodative after the recession but became more accommodative over time.
Tight Credit Conditions Continue to Constrain the Housing Recovery
By Jordan Rappaport and Paul Willen
The housing recovery has continued to struggle to gain traction. The vigilance with which lenders have been applying stricter lending standards suggests regulatory uncertainty may be playing a role.
Evolving Market Perceptions of Federal Reserve Policy Objectives
By George A. Kahn and Lisa Taylor
Despite varying interpretations of the Fed's monetary policy mandate, the response of long-term rates to economic news remains relatively stable, suggesting markets perceive little change in policy objectives under different regimes.
The Global Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy
By Travis Berge and Guangye Cao
Travis Berge and Guangye Cao assess the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices in 50 countries. They find a similar reaction of asset prices to conventional and unconventional monetary policies.
Consumer Debt Dynamics: An Update
By John Carter Braxton and Troy Davig
Is the trend of contracting of consumer debt turning? Outstanding consumer debt and the fraction of consumers with increasing debt grew in the last half of 2013, mainly fueled by those with low credit scores borrowing to buy autos.
The Long-Term Outlook for U.S. Residential Construction
By Jordan Rappaport
The recovery of U.S. housing construction paused during the first half of 2013. Stronger growth is likely to resume in the near term. But over the long term, home construction is likely to contract as aging baby boomers downsize.
The Impact of an Aging Population on State Tax Revenues
By Alison Felix and Kate Watkins
People tend to earn less and spend less when they retire. As the baby boom generation retires, the aging of the U.S. population will likely reduce state governments’ revenue per capita from income taxes and sales taxes significantly.
The Weakened Influence of Low Interest Rates on Durable Goods Spending
By Willem Van Zandweghe and John Carter Braxton
Despite record-low interest rates, the pace of the current economic recovery has been only moderate. One reason is that the positive impact of lowered interest rates on consumer purchases of durable goods has diminished.
U.S. Exports and Foreign Economic Growth: Which Regions Matter Most?
By Jun Nie and Lisa Taylor
U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.
Has The Effect of Monetary Policy Announcements On Asset Prices Changed?
By Taeyoung Doh and Michael Connolly
The Federal Reserve has increased communication about the future path of the federal funds target rate over time. The use of forward guidance as a policy tool has raised questions about changes in how it influences the economy.
The Shadow Labor Supply and Its Implications for the Unemployment Rate
By Troy Davig and José Mustre-del-Río
The number of people wanting work, but not looking for a job, has swelled in recent years. However, their flow rate back into unemployment has been declining, so they will likely only have a modest impact on the unemployment rate.
Assessing Labor Market Conditions: The level of activity and the speed of improvement
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jonathan L. Willis
To help assess labor market conditions, two measures are proposed that show that the pace of improvement has recently increased, but two more years of similar improvement are needed to return conditions to historical averages.