The Economic Research Department The mission of the Research Department is to conduct innovative economic research on monetary policy and other issues of importance to the Bank and the Federal Reserve System and to communicate the results of this research to policymakers, other researchers, and the general public.

Economic Research News

Research Working Paper: Inflation Targeting and Private Sector Forecasts

Using data from 15 countries over 20 years, there is no convincing evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime leads to a reduction in the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. (January 2010)

Research Working Paper: Executive Compensation and Business Policy Choices at U.S. Commercial Banks

Executives at U.S. commercial banking companies often receive high salaries, large bonuses, and substantial amounts of company stock and options. Does this affect the way they run their banks? (January 2010)

Research Working Paper: Training or Search? Evidence and an Equilibrium Model

What are the effects of training programs and unemployment benefits on an economy's unemployment, employment and output levels? (January 2010)

Research Working Paper: Euler-Equation Estimation for Discrete Choice Models: A Capital Accumulation Application

This paper presents a new methodology for estimating capital adjustment costs. (January 2010)

Central bank forecasting conference On October 14-15, 2010, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will host a research conference on central bank forecasting. More information will be made available by March 31.

Fourth Quarter Economic Review

Is the Great Moderation over? This fourth quarter Economic Review article by Todd E. Clark concludes that, over time, macroeconomic volatility will likely undergo occasional shifts between high and low levels, with low volatility the norm. Are the Energy States Still Energy States? This fourth quarter Economic Review article by Mark C. Snead finds that the economies of the energy states remain highly sensitive to changes in energy prices and follow a much different economic cycle than non-energy states. It also finds that the historical ranks of the energy states are poised for a shuffling. Is the Tenth District succeeding in attracting the power cohort? This fourth quarter Economic Review article by Kelly Edmiston argues the district does well based on unemployment, wages, and taxes-but is relatively weak based on cultural and recreational amenities, intellectual capital, topography, and crime. Can the Ag Credit Survey predict national credit conditions? This fourth quarter Economic Review article by Brian C. Briggeman and Christopher Zakrzewicz concludes that the Survey reliably predicts farm loan repayment rates in the district and provides valuable insight into future farm loan delinquencies and credit standards nationwide.

Kansas City Financial Stress Index
	The Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 financial market variables.