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Todd E. Clark |
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Curriculum Vitae (PDF, 111K) |
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| Other Federal Reserve publications |
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Todd Clark is a Vice President and Economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. He joined the department in 1992. A native of Indiana, Todd received a bachelor's degree in economics and mathematics from Wabash College in 1985 and a doctorate in economics from the University of Michigan in 1992. He has published research on a variety of topics, including the sources of business cycles in different countries and regions of the United States, the relationship between inflation and long-term growth, the relationship between producer and consumer prices, the measurement of inflation, and the evaluation of forecasts. Todd is currently an associate editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. |
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"Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling Forecasts," with Michael W. McCracken, International Economic Review, forthcoming. "Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," with Michael W. McCracken, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming. "Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of Instabilities," with Michael W. McCracken, Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty, D. Rapach and M. Wohar, ed., Elsevier. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested
Models," with Kenneth D. West, Journal of Econometrics, May 2007. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the
Martingale Difference Hypothesis," with Kenneth D. West, Journal of
Econometrics, November 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," with Michael McCracken, Journal of
Money, Credit, and Banking, August 2006. "Disaggregate Evidence on the Persistence of Consumer Price Inflation,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, July / August 2006. "Estimating Equilibrium Real Interest Rates in Real Time," with Sharon
Kozicki, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, December
2005. "Evaluating Direct Multi-Step Forecasts," with Michael McCracken,
Econometric Reviews, October 2005. "The Power of Tests of Predictive Ability in the Presence of Structural
Breaks," with Michael W. McCracken, Journal of Econometrics,
January 2005. "Can Out-of-Sample Forecast Comparisons Help Prevent Overfitting?"
Journal of Forecasting, March 2004. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models,"
with Michael W. McCracken, Journal of Econometrics, November 2001.
"Borders and Business Cycles," with Eric van Wincoop, Journal of
International Economics, October 2001. "The Sources of Fluctuations Within and Across Countries," with Kwanho
Shin, Intranational Macroeconomics, G. Hess and E. van Wincoop,
eds., Cambridge University Press, 2000. "Forecasting An Aggregate of Cointegrated Disaggregates," Journal of
Forecasting, January 2000. "Finite-Sample Properties of Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy,"
Journal of Forecasting, December 1999. "The Responses of Prices at Different Stages of Production to Monetary
Policy Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, August
1999. "Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of
National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks," Journal of
Labor Economics, January 1998. "Cross-Country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation," Economic
Inquiry, January 1997. "Small Sample Properties of Estimators of Non-Linear Models of
Covariance Structure," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,
July 1996. "Rents and Prices of Housing Across Areas of the U.S.: A
Cross-Section Examination of the Present Value Model," Regional Science
and Urban Economics, April 1995.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review articles |
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"Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed?" with Taisuke Nakata (Summary | Article PDF 1,024K) "The Trend Growth Rate of Employment: Past, Present, and Future," with Taisuke Nakata, First Quarter 2006. (Summary | Article PDF 258K) "An Evaluation of the Decline in Goods Inflation," Second Quarter 2004. (Summary | Article PDF 302K) "Comparing Measures of Core Inflation," Second Quarter 2001. (Summary | Article PDF 122K) "A Comparison of the CPI and the PCE Price Index," Third Quarter 1999. (Summary | Article PDF 166K) "Progress Toward Price Stability: A 1997 Inflation Report," First Quarter 1998. (Summary | Article PDF 73K) "U.S. Inflation Developments in 1996," First Quarter 1997. (Summary | Article PDF 160K) "U.S. Inflation Developments in 1995," First Quarter 1996. (Summary | Article PDF 180K) "Do Producer Prices Lead Consumer Prices?" Third Quarter 1995. (Summary | Article PDF 153 K) "Nominal GDP Targeting Rules: Can They Stabilize the Economy?" Third Quarter 1994. ( Article PDF 120 K) |
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"Tests of Equal Predictive Ability with Real-Time Data,"
with Michael W. McCracken, RWP 07-06. (PDF,993K | Abstract) "Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities,"
with Michael W. McCracken, RWP 06-12. (PDF,1.81
mb | Abstract) "Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of
Instabilities,"
with Michael W. McCracken, RWP 06-09. (PDF,1.41
| Abstract) "Combining Forecasts from Nested Models," with Michael W. McCracken,
RWP 06-02.
"Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested
Models," with Kenneth D. West, RWP 05-05. "Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling
Forecasts," with Michael W. McCracken, RWP 04-10. "Estimating Equilibrium Real Interest Rates in Real Time," with Sharon Kozicki, RWP 04-08. "Disaggregate Evidence on the Persistence of Consumer Price Inflation,"
RWP 03-11.
"The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," with Michael McCracken, RWP 03-06.
"Forecast-Based Model Selection in the Presence of Structural Breaks,"
with Michael McCracken, RWP 02-05.
"The Sources of Fluctuations Within and Across Countries," with
Kwanho Shin, RWP 98-04.
"Do Producer Prices Help Predict Consumer Prices?" RWP 97-09. |
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"Sources of New York Employment Fluctuations: Commentary," Economic
Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, February 1997. |