Alan Garner is an Assistant Vice President and Economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. A native of Missouri, Alan received a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Missouri at Columbia in 1973 and a doctorate degree in economics from Harvard University in 1977. Following his graduate studies, Alan taught economics in the College of Business Administration at the University of Notre Dame. He joined the Bank's Economic Research Department in 1984. Much of his research has focused on the usefulness of various economic indicators in predicting economic growth or inflation. He has also published articles on such topics as the Social Security system, consumer behavior, the housing industry, and monetary policy.

Publications in professional journals and books

"Commodity Prices: Policy Target or Information Variable?" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1989.

"Equity in Economic Relationships: Towards a Positive Theory," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,1986.

"Forecast Dispersion as a Measure of Economic Uncertainty," Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, Spring 1985.

"'Uncertainty' in Keynes' General Theory: A Comment," History of Political Economy, Spring 1983.

"Tests of Monetary Neutrality for the United Kingdom," Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, Autumn 1982.

"Experimental Evidence on the Rationality of Intuitive Forecasters," in Vernon L. Smith, ed., Research in Experimental Economics, JAI Press, 1982.

"Uncertainty, Human Judgment, and Economic Decisions," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Spring 1982.

"Economic Determinants of Consumer Sentiment," Journal of Business Research, June 1981.

"Academic Publication, Market Signaling, and Scientific Research Decisions," Economic Inquiry, October 1979.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review articles

"Middle-Income Tax Rates: Trends and Prospects," with Troy A. Davig, Fourth Quarter 2006. (Summary | Article PDF 186K)

"Should the Decline in the Personal Saving Rate Be a Cause for Concern?" Second Quarter 2006. (Summary | Article PDF 121K)

"Consumption Taxes: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues," Second Quarter 2005. (Summary | Article PDF 174K)

"Offshoring in the Service Sector: Economic Impact and Policy Issues," Third Quarter 2004. (Summary | Article PDF 233K)

"Consumer Confidence After September 11," Second Quarter 2002. (Summary | Article PDF 199K)

"An Inflation Report for 1999," First Quarter 2000. (Summary | Article PDF 108K)

"Progress Toward Price Stability: A 1998 Inflation Report," First Quarter 1999. (Summary | Article PDF 118K)

"A Closer Look at the Employment Cost Index," Third Quarter 1998. (Summary | Article PDF 170K)

"Social Security Privatization: Balancing Efficiency and Fairness," Third Quarter 1997. (Summary | Article PDF 92K)

"Can Measures of the Consumer Debt Burden Reliably Predict an Economic Slowdown?" Fourth Quarter 1996. (Summary | Article PDF 75K)

"How Useful Are Leading Indicators of Inflation?" Second Quarter 1995. (Summary | Article PDF 108K)

"Capacity Utilization and U.S. Inflation," Fourth Quarter 1994. (Full Publication PDF 790K)

"Can IRAs Cure the Low National Savings Rate?" Second Quarter 1993 (Full Publication PDF 941K)

"Will the Real Price of Housing Drop Sharply in the 1990s?" First Quarter 1992 (Full Publication PDF 561K)

"Forecasting Consumer Spending: Should Economists Pay Attention to Consumer Confidence Surveys?" Second Quarter 1991 (Full Publication PDF 785K)

"The Effect of U.S. Defense Cuts on the Standard of Living," First Quarter 1991 (Full Publication PDF 792K)

"Is the Business Cycle Disappearing?" with Richard E. Wurtz, Second Quarter 1990 (Full Publication PDF 851K)

Biography	Curriculum vitae (PDF, 13K)
Publications in journals and books
Economic Review articles