Economic Review
Fourth Quarter 2001 

Economic Policy for the Information Economy--A Summary of the Bank's 2001 Economic Symposium
By Craig S. Hakkio 

The economies of the industrialized countries are being reshaped by the rapid development and diffusion of advanced information and communications technologies. Access to information is unprecedented, and the ability to process and exchange information has helped businesses increase efficiency and households raise their standards of living. There has been considerable agreement as to the broad features of the emerging information economy. But there has been less consensus on the likely magnitude and significance of the economic effects or on the important policy issues raised by these developments.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City sponsored a symposium, “Economic Policy for the Information Economy,” at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 30 – September 1, 2001. The symposium brought together a distinguished group of central bankers, academics, and financial market experts to examine how the information economy will alter the structure of economic activity. The symposium also served as a forum for addressing key policy challenges.

Mr. Hakkio summarizes the principal issues raised at the symposium. Participants agreed that the information economy has changed the microeconomic and macroeconomic structure of the U.S. and foreign economies. The general consensus at the symposium was that long-run growth was probably 3 to 3 ½ percent, compared to 2 ¼ to 2 ½ percent in the 1980s and early 1990s.

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The 'New Economy': Background, Historical Perspective, Questions, and Speculations
By J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers 

In a presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s 2001 symposium, “Economic Policy for the Information Economy,” Professor J. Bradford DeLong of the University of California-Berkeley, and Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers suggested that any attempt to analyze the meaning and importance of the "new economy" must grapple with four questions:

First, in the long run, how important will ongoing technological revolutions in data processing and data communications turn out to be? Second, what does the crash of the Nasdaq tell us about the future of the new economy? Third, how should government regulation of the economy change so as to maximize the benefits we reap from these ongoing technological revolutions? And fourth, how will the American economy respond to the shock to public confidence and the destruction caused by the terror attacks of September 11?

In exploring answers to these questions, the authors found the following: The long-run economic impact of the ongoing technological revolutions in data processing and data communications will be very large indeed. The crash of the Nasdaq tells us next to nothing about the dimensions of the economic transformation that we are undergoing. It does, however, tell us that the new economy is more likely to be a source of downward pressure on margins than of large durable quasi-rents. The principal effects of the "new economy" are more likely to be "microeconomic" than "macroeconomic," and they will lead to profound—if at present unclear—changes in how the government should act to provide the property rights, institutional frameworks, and "rules of the game" that underpin the market economy. And finally, the events of September 11 will slow private investment in new technologies, but U.S. military spending is likely to increase, and the increase in military spending will be concentrated on high-technology data-processing and data-communications products. On balance, therefore, the changes in economic structure that fall under the category “new economy” are not likely to be much affected.

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Can TIPS Help Identify Long-Term Inflation Expectations?
By Pu Shen and Jonathan Corning 

Investors and policymakers have long hoped that Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) would provide an accurate measure of long-term market inflation expectations. To make informed decisions and to ensure that inflation does not erode the purchasing power of their assets, investors need to assess the rate of inflation expected by other market participants. Having an accurate measure of market inflation expectations can also help policymakers assess their effectiveness in controlling long-term inflation, as well as their credibility among market participants.

Until recently, however, the only sources of information about long-term inflation expectations were surveys and the term structure of interest rates, neither of which were considered highly reliable. With the introduction of TIPS in 1997, it was hoped that a new measure of market inflation expectations—the difference in yields between conventional Treasuries and TIPS—would become available.

Shen and Corning examine the empirical evidence on the behavior of the yield difference and the liquidity of the TIPS market. They find that the yield difference has not provided a good measure of market inflation expectations because of the large and variable liquidity premium on TIPS. Still, the yield difference may become a better measure of market inflation expectations as liquidity conditions in the two kinds of Treasury markets move closer in the future.

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