U.S. URBAN DECLINE AND GROWTH, 1950 to 2000

The perception that large U.S. cities are enjoying a widespread renaissance following a long period of pervasive decline is inaccurate. 

In “U.S. Urban Decline and Growth, 1950 to 2000,” Jordan Rappaport, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, examines postwar growth of large U.S. cities. Rather than decline followed by growth, the author shows that most large cities either declined continuously or else grew continuously. Only a handful of cities were actually able to reverse steep population declines.

Using a simple accounting framework, Rappaport finds that large cities’ varied growth experiences resulted from a combination of national, regional, metropolitan area, and local factors. These included a continuing shift of population from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West, a slowing shift of population from cities to suburbs, and the much more rapid growth of some metropolitan areas relative to others.

Rappaport concludes that “to understand U.S. urban growth over the last 50 years, it is important to look beyond broad headline numbers. Decomposing growth into its component factors provides insight into why cities have performed so differently in the past. Moreover, doing so helps identify factors that may be crucial to specific cities’ future success.”

The article and past editions of the Economic Review are available on the Bank’s Web site at www.kansascityfed.org.

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