Economic Review
First Quarter 2000

The Farm Slump Continues
By Alan D. Barkema

The century's final year was one of frustration for U.S. agriculture - certainly not the way the industry had hoped to close the millennium. Farmers took pride
in their productivity, turning out the fourth bin-busting crop in a row and more red meat and poultry than ever before. But the big production collided with a still sluggish world market, holding down farm commodity prices. Still, farm income held up well above the average for the past decade, due to another big financial assistance package from Washington.

The farm slump will likely continue in the year ahead, although prospects for livestock and crop producers diverge widely. Livestock producers could have a very good year, with low feed costs and robust consumer demand boosting profits, but weak crop prices could drag down farm income. The farm export picture is beginning to brighten again, but too gradually to offer much relief in 2000. With exports soft and the nation's granaries still full, weak crop prices could be the norm. As in the last two years, help from Washington may determine whether farm income in 2000 rises or falls.

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An Inflation Report for 1999
By C. Alan Garner

The U.S. economy turned in an exceptional performance in 1999, combining strong real output growth with moderate inflation. Real GDP, a broad measure of the nation's output of goods and services, grew 4.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999. Employment also rose solidly, and the civilian unemployment rate declined to the lowest level in about 30 years. Although rising world oil prices caused consumer prices to increase faster than in 1998, core inflation measures, which exclude food and energy prices, were about the same or slightly lower. Moreover, survey measures of long-term inflation expectations were stable despite the robust pace of the economic expansion.

What accounts for this exceptional combination of rapid growth and moderate inflation? Several factors helped hold down the inflation rate, including strong import competition and ample industrial capacity at home and abroad. But many recent discussions have emphasized the pronounced increase in productivity growth, reflecting both the high level of business investment and accelerated technological change. In particular, new information technologies, such as computers and the Internet, may be increasing economic efficiency through better coordination of business activities and reduced inventories. The evidence is unclear, however, about how much of the productivity acceleration is due to new technologies, and whether faster productivity growth can be sustained in the years ahead.

Such questions are crucial in judging whether rapid growth can continue without undermining the Federal Reserve's long-run objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth. Garner examines recent inflation developments and the policy implications of faster productivity growth.

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Are Mergers Responsible for the Surge in New Bank Charters
By William R. Keeton

After stagnating for many years, the rate of new bank formation increased sharply in the second half of the 1990s. The financial press attributes this development to the high volume of bank mergers, which are said to have encouraged new entry by reducing service to some bank customers. It is commonly asserted, for example, that many new banks serve small businesses whose banks were taken over by larger banks uninterested in making small business loans. Most banking experts agree that such an increase in new banks in response to mergers would be healthy, helping maintain competition in local banking markets and offset reductions in service.

The view that mergers encourage new bank formation has recently come into question. Examining data on new bank charters and mergers in the 1990s, a study released early last year concluded that mergers have actually discouraged new bank formation. Shortly thereafter, another study came to the opposite conclusion, finding that mergers encourage new entry. Taken together, these studies raise two important questions. First, is merger activity positively or negatively related to new bank formation? Second, if mergers are positively related to new bank formation, which types of mergers account for the link?

Keeton reexamines the relationship between mergers and new bank charters, distinguishing more carefully than the other two studies between different types of mergers. The results, based on data for the second half of the 1990s, provide strong support for the view that mergers encourage the formation of new banks. Specifically, the author finds that markets with more merger activity experienced higher rates of new bank formation, and that the mergers with the strongest link to new bank formation were those in which small banks were taken over by large banks or local banks by distant banks.

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