Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Tenth District manufacturing activity showed signs of a rebound in June, and firms’ expectations for future factory activity were generally positive. Price indexes in the survey edged up slightly after months of decline.
The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in June was 9, up from -3 in May and -6 in April (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). Production indexes, positive for the first time in 10 months, increased at both durable and non-durable-goods producing plants. Most other month-over-month indexes climbed higher and several also moved into positive territory. The shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes all increased for the second straight month. The employment index edged up from -13 to -10, and the employee workweek index also improved considerably. Both inventory indexes dropped after increasing last month, though over half of all firms indicated general satisfaction with their inventory levels.
The majority of year-over-year factory indexes showed marked improvements in June but still remained quite negative. The production index increased from -52 to -44, and the shipments, order backlog, and employment indexes also rose marginally. The capital spending index jumped from -48 to -28, and the new orders for exports index also increased. On the other hand, the new orders index fell slightly after rising last month. The finished goods inventory index decreased from -20 to -23, while the raw materials inventory index remained unchanged.
Most future factory activity indexes also increased considerably from the previous month. The future production index jumped from 1 to 13, and the future shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also climbed higher. The future employment index rose from -14 to 0, and the new orders for exports and employee workweek indexes also edged up. On the other hand, the future capital expenditures index fell slightly from -10 to -13, as most firms indicated some lingering hesitancy on major investments due to the only recent pickup in activity. Both future inventory indexes increased but still remained in negative territory.
The majority of price indexes rose marginally, with a few moving into positive territory. The month-over-month finished goods price index edged up from -19 to -14, and the raw materials index also increased. The year-over-year finished goods price index fell from -8 to -11, while the raw materials index rebounded from an all-time survey low. The future finished goods price index jumped from -16 to 2 and the future raw materials index also climbed markedly.
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