Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Tenth District manufacturing activity rebounded somewhat in April, and firms’ expectations for future factory activity improved slightly after falling last month. Price indexes remained elevated, however, with raw materials prices climbing higher.
The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in April was 7, up from -5 in both March and February (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). Production improved the most at non-durable-goods producing plants. Like production, the majority of other month-over-month indexes increased from the previous month. The shipments index jumped from -5 to 10, and the new orders index also increased considerably. The order backlog index rose, and the employment index climbed from -10 to 1. In contrast, the new export orders index fell slightly after rising considerably in March. Both inventory indexes increased markedly over last month.
The year-over-year indexes were somewhat mixed in April. The production index fell further from 0 to -5, and the shipments index remained unchanged at 0. The employment index decreased for the third month in a row, and the capital expenditures index eased from 14 to 10. In contrast, the new orders index rose from -9 to 0 and the order backlog index also improved slightly. The raw materials inventory index edged higher, while the finished goods inventory index remained relatively unchanged.
After falling last month, most future factory activity indexes rebounded somewhat in April. The future production index jumped from 6 to 18, and the shipments and new order indexes also increased. The employment and capital expenditures indexes remained relatively unchanged from the previous month. In contrast, the future order backlog index fell from 9 to -1, and the future new export orders index eased from 22 to 19. Both inventory indexes increased slightly from March.
Price indexes remained elevated, as raw materials prices continued to climb. Both month-over-month indexes were relatively unchanged from March, but remained at high levels historically. The year-over-year raw materials index edged higher from 84 to 87, an all-time high, while the finished goods index eased slightly. The future finished goods index decreased from 49 to 44, but the future raw materials index jumped to its highest level in survey history. Producers of machinery and aircraft reported particularly high raw material increases, and most firms continued to cite higher commodity prices, especially for oil and metals.
|
